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The GCC Ageing Inflection Point: Longevity, Brain Capital, and the Next Systemic Economic Reckoning

The GCC Ageing Inflection Point:  Longevity, Brain Capital, and the Next Systemic Economic Reckoning Author: KJ Lavan Executive Framing If  the previous paper demonstrated that GDP is structurally misaligned with ageing societies,  the following paper addresses the next-order risk : The GCC is ageing faster than its economic, fiscal, and cognitive institutions are adapting, and the failure mode will appear first as a productivity slowdown, then as a social-fiscal imbalance, and finally as a competitiveness shock. The launch of the  World Economic Forum  Brain Capital Index  is not symbolic. It represents a  formal redefinition of national economic strength , shifting emphasis from output alone to  cognitive capacity, mental resilience, and lifelong brain function  as core determinants of growth, innovation, and state capability¹. For GCC countries, longevity is no longer a demographic achievement. It is a  systems stress test . I. The Lo...
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The Longevity Brain Economy

The Longevity Brain Economy Why GDP Is No Longer Sufficient      & Why Total Social Product, Settlement Infrastructure, and Universal Basic Income Are Becoming Structural Necessities Author: KJ Lavan Executive Summary Global economies are ageing into a structural contradiction. Demographic longevity is rising faster than economic systems, designed for short life cycles, can adapt. Across OECD and high-income economies, population ageing is now a  primary driver of declining GDP growth, rising fiscal pressure, and labor-force fragility , not a secondary trend. Empirically: Every  10% increase in the population over age 65 reduces annual GDP growth by ~0.3–0.6 percentage points ¹ Dementia already costs the global economy  >$1.3 trillion annually , projected to exceed  $2.8 trillion by 2030 ² Long-term care demand is growing  2–3× faster than the available workforce ³ Unpaid care and household labor accounts for  20–50% of real economic a...
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